Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 22.222805 26.625096 31.450034 37.102233 43.512520 50.527447 58.754264
2025-09-28 14.685230 20.179639 26.824184 35.326613 45.785086 58.095128 73.535961
2025-10-05 11.598593 17.725122 25.704214 36.584245 50.738664 68.225860 91.130116
2025-10-12 9.402474 15.794969 24.674748 37.445819 54.834526 77.156559 107.387171
2025-10-19 7.743720 14.210519 23.738542 38.104294 58.447645 85.419978 122.973177
2025-10-26 6.551250 13.054751 23.166426 39.064721 62.358360 94.103134 139.337350
2025-11-02 5.298996 11.531291 21.782552 38.603398 64.099794 99.794738 151.809047
2025-11-09 4.425984 10.467782 20.937573 38.791525 66.677869 106.643155 166.009484
2025-11-16 3.636259 9.380350 19.878681 38.481461 68.401483 112.258124 178.606057
2025-11-23 2.889810 8.199098 18.472390 37.420290 68.823542 115.912071 188.459111
2025-11-30 2.532874 7.754599 18.319745 38.411810 72.470437 124.408360 205.504207
2025-12-07 2.053259 6.910528 17.287324 37.753991 73.375920 128.767515 216.593139
2025-12-14 1.759797 6.472416 17.053954 38.616401 77.027570 137.777389 235.380053
2025-12-21 1.295986 5.440967 15.444355 36.789298 76.056850 139.616932 243.577796
2025-12-28 1.134131 5.201496 15.488366 38.087310 80.502248 150.140555 265.289506
2026-01-04 0.971134 4.900037 15.339903 38.976172 84.252184 159.663118 285.724945
2026-01-11 0.822138 4.585944 15.106237 39.655392 87.638923 168.692299 305.632711
2026-01-18 0.709556 4.354646 15.033060 40.645929 91.624325 178.822011 327.532901
2026-01-25 0.558364 3.898951 14.307419 40.170164 92.840846 184.359309 342.274629
2026-02-01 0.456693 3.592194 13.914093 40.364185 95.304152 192.050228 360.643549
2026-02-08 0.359029 3.239797 13.323015 40.044403 96.737597 198.002400 376.324812
2026-02-15 0.263759 2.819952 12.441674 38.949839 96.564122 201.136889 387.449054
2026-02-22 0.226754 2.703947 12.458218 39.972567 100.643989 211.818216 411.262156